Is Gold a Safe Investment for Seniors?
November 8th, 2009 by Skip McGrath
I am not a gold bug, but I have always owned some gold (and silver) in my investment portfolio. A few years ago I upped my percentage to 20% where it is now. Given the events of the past two years that has been a blessing. In that period of time gold has risen from around $600 when I increased my investment percentage to over $1000 per ounce today.
Investment risk
There are two risks to any investment: It can go down as well as up as we have seen stocks and real estate do over the past year or so. The other risk people seldom pay attention to is inflation. Right now we have slight deflation. But if the government continues to print money and run larger and larger deficits, there will come a time when investors around the world who hold dollar denominated investments such as treasury bonds and stock in American companies will start dumping them. Since most of our consumer goods are now imported, the falling dollar means that the price of those goods in dollars will rise. The first commodity to do that will be oil. Since the world wide price of oil is set in dollars, a weaker dollar will mean higher priced oil in dollars.
Gold and Inflation
The price of gold is inversely proportional to the value of the dollar. As the dollar falls the price of gold goes up. This makes gold –and to the same extent silver, a hedge against inflation.
During the early 1980s as the dollar fell in value, the price of gold shot up from $300 to over $1000. As the fed tightened up the money supply and increased interests rates, gold fell back to the $300 range where it stayed for years. But in 2007, the dollar began its slide and gold started up again –hitting a new high last week of $1070.
The Gold Bugs claim that gold could reach $5000. I think that is as far fetched as the Gold Bugs themselves, but serious analysts and investors do believe that gold will certainly hit $1300 in the near term and as high as $1500-$1800 over the next year or so. I tend to agree with them.
How to buy and own gold
There are two easy ways to own gold. You can buy physical gold from several firms such as Blanchard and Goldline –both very old respected large companies. The other way is to buy stocks in gold companies or an exchange traded fund (symbol GLD) that tracks the price of gold on a daily basis. These last two can be owned in a IRA, Roth IRA or a 401K fund.
Is Gold a safe investment for seniors living on a fixed income?
It can be if you do it correctly. A little physical gold or silver can be great to have around but I wouldn’t place a large percentage of my savings in that as the price could crash before you can sell it. Trading a fund like GLD or owning stocks in gold mining companies, such as Barrick Gold, is probably better because you can control your risk with Stop Loss Orders and you can trade them instantly.
But like any investment, you don’t want too many off your eggs in one basket. If I were 20 years younger, I might have a higher percentage of my money in gold, silver and other resource stocks, but at my age I think 20% is right for me –but I still have earning power. If I were completely retired and needing to live on my social security and investments, then 10% or even 5% might be safer –but I definitely would have some as a hedge against the inflation that is certainly coming.
Another way to hedge against inflation is with resource stocks such as oil, mining and chemical companies as the price of those goods are highly sensitive to inflation and the value of the dollar and would increase as well if the dollar continues sliding.
When to sell your gold
The best time to sell any commodity is when everyone else is buying. My youngest son was investing in real estate. He started in 2003. During early 2007 (when the real estate boom was about to bust but we didn’t know it) I was watching a TV show –I think it was Dateline or 20/20. They were doing a story about ordinary people getting rich in real estate in Florida. They were interviewing a manicurist who owned 4 pieces of property and was about to buy a million dollar condo that wasn’t even built yet. I tuned to my son who was visiting at the time and told him it was time to sell his real estate. He asked me why and I said because the best time to sell anything is when everyone is buying. that is always the sign of an impending bubble bursting. Right now a lot of investors that understand what is happening in our economy and with the dollar are buying gold –but when every one of your friends and neighbors and people you know are unsophisticated about investing start buying gold –that will be the signal to sell and take your profits.
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