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Archive for September, 2010

Are You Missing The Boat on Gold and Commodities?

Posted Monday, September 27th, 2010

If you haven’t been investing in the gold market, like I’ve been telling you to do, then not only are you missing the boat …

… but the boat you are in, whatever it may be, is most likely sinking — weighed down by the effects of all the Fed’s money printing, which will continue as far as the eye can see.

Just last week for instance …

The Federal Reserve bought a record $5.19 BILLION in U.S. Treasury bonds and Federal Agency mortgages, effectively printing more money than it did in any other week this year.

Equally important …

The Fed also announced that it will essentially stop at nothing to turn the economy around … that it stands ready to print money whenever it feels it needs to … and that it wants to spark inflation.

Haven’t I been telling you all along that this was going to happen?

That the Fed would stop at nothing to ignite inflation … print money like crazy — and that deflation had little chance of taking root in anything other than real estate or perhaps the latest tech product to come to market?

Meanwhile, GOLD is now hitting one record high after another, soaring to $1,301.60 an ounce as I pen this issue … and firmly on its way to its next pit stop at the $1,375 level!

Your average gold share is also soaring, up more than 6% since the first of this month … and more than 18% since the end of July.

And it’s not just gold that’s flying …

The price of almost every commodity on the planet is skyrocketing!

  • Sugar, up more than 50% in only three months.
  • Cotton, up more than 40% since July 20.
  • Soybeans, up more than 20% since the beginning of June.
  • Oats, up more than 60%.
  • Corn, jumping more than 48% just since the beginning of July!
  • Palladium up 20% since early June. Copper up 26%.

The Fed’s money-printing and dollar devaluation is the chief reason we’re seeing these massive price gains in natural resources, tangible assets.

Fed money-printing and dollar devaluation have lit a fire under commodity prices.

But it’s not the only reason. There’s also huge, non-investment related, consumer and industrial demand for natural resources — emanating primarily from Asia’s still hotly growing economies, especially China.

So where are all the supplies for these commodities coming from? I’ll tell you more about that in a minute.

First, let’s look at some facts on how rapidly China is growing, even while the U.S. and European economies remain stuck in the mud …

  • China’s factory output soared nearly 14% in August, year-over-year.
  • China’s retail sales surged almost 19% in August.
  • Through August, China’s capital spending soared 24.8%.
  • Last month, China sold 1.322 million autos, fully 32% more autos than were sold in the U.S.

As China goes, so goes pretty much the rest of Asia!

So what countries will benefit most from the Fed’s weak dollar policy … soaring commodity prices … and by meeting Asia’s burgeoning appetite for natural resources?

Well, of course, there are Australia and Canada. But lest you think those are the only two major country plays in natural resources, think again!

There’s another corner of the globe that is rocking now — Latin America!

My colleague, Rudy Martin, is a leading Latin American expert. He’s got some great insights to what’s happening in this often overlooked, but rapidly growing part of the world.

You won’t want to miss the boat on this market. So I’ve invited Rudy to give occasional comments on Latin America and its emerging economies.

This week, Rudy focuses on Brazil. Check out his comments below:

Hi – My name is Rudy Martin.

Latin America is certainly benefiting from China’s growing need to import food and natural resources, especially Brazil, whose main index, the Bovespa, has nearly doubled since its March 2009 low.

Nonetheless, I’m still finding undervalued situations in Brazil, for five major reasons, in addition to its abundant natural resources …

1. Underpriced stocks: A composite of 164 Brazilian stocks I track sells at just 11.2 times next year’s earnings, or 12% less than U.S. stocks.

Meanwhile, Brazilian companies’ earnings are growing at annual rates of 28%-30% — almost double the earnings growth of Dow Industrials stocks.

2. The solid Brazilian real: The Brazilian real currency rallied by 32% in 2009, the biggest advance among the world’s 16 major currencies.

And while Brazil’s government is getting a bit concerned the real is appreciating too rapidly, with the U.S. dollar so weak, I have no doubts the real will continue to remain a strong currency with upside potential.

3. Interest rates and inflation: Brazil’s central bank benchmark interest rate is 10.75%, while inflation is running at 5%. That gives Brazil’s rates a net real interest rate of 5%, after inflation.

4. A massive emerging consumer market: The average Brazilian earns $10,500 of income annually, versus $14,000 for Argentines and Chileans.

And yet, in many ways, the Brazilian economy is much more developed and less regulated than both.

Moreover, Brazil is a young economy: 70% of its population is between the ages of 14 and 65 — meaning there’s a huge emerging consumer market there, and less of the population dependent upon either their family or the government.

Bottom line: If you’re serious about geographically diversifying your portfolio, consider, at least for starters, a nice position in Brazil. You don’t even have to leave home to do so, or open a brokerage account there.

I believe the best all-around way is to stake out a position in the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (EWZ). — Rudy

About Uncommon Wisdom

This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com.

The Federal Reserve’s Next Moves

Posted Thursday, September 16th, 2010

Here is another great guest article by Larry Edelson that gives his take on what the Fed may have in store for the economy (and us) in the months ahead.

The Federal Reserve’s Next Moves
By Larry Edelson ~ Real Wealth Management

We are now entering a period of time that I’ve been warning you about. A time when the majority begins to recognize that the U.S. and European economies are both plunging deep under water, drowning in debt …

While at the same time, leaders in both the U.S. and Europe face political nightmares … financial markets going haywire … gold soaring through the roof … and central banks beginning, yet again, to pull out their big guns.

And no central bank has bigger guns than our own Federal Reserve.

Make no mistake about it: In the weeks and months ahead, you are going to see Fed Chief Ben Bernanke pull out nuclear-sized bombs to try and destroy the debt crisis that is affecting the world.

But wait you say, hasn’t the Fed already shot all of its bullets?

My answer: No, it hasn’t. The Federal Reserve has far more fire power than almost anyone believes. Mind you: It will not alter the fate and destiny of the economy. But it will alter the way the economy goes down in flames.

Isn’t there anyone left who’ll just tell us the truth?

Politicians and pundits … bureaucrats and bankers … reporters, regulators and rating agencies: They all swore on a stack of bibles that the trillions of dollars Washington spent on bailout and stimulus would save the economy — and with it, your income, your stocks and your retirement.

Unfortunately, despite all the siren songs, the facts most Americans can see with their own eyes paint a very different, much darker, picture.

Understanding this is the single biggest key you need to know to protect your money — and build wealth — in the months ahead.

The Fed Has Plenty Of Ammo Left

Many believe that since the Fed has already printed trillions of dollars … pushed interest rates to near zero … and supported the mortgage and Treasury note and bond markets — that it is effectively “out of bullets.”

And to some extent, they are right. In the sense that their policies thus far have failed to create any real economic growth.

But the pundits who claim the Fed has no ammo left, are dead wrong. The Fed has some very heavy artillery that it can — and will — bring to the fight against the debt crisis in the weeks and months ahead.

Let me review them with you now …

Fed Weapon #1: The Fed can print as much money as it wants. There is no limit to how much it can print. Everyone knows that, but few believe the Fed will print unlimited amounts of money.

Don’t kid yourself. There is no legal or political body the Fed has to answer to. So it can and will print fiat money ad infinitum.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed still have plenty of tricks up their sleeve in a losing battle against the debt crisis.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed still have plenty of tricks up their sleeve in a losing battle against the debt crisis.

Fed Weapon #2: The Fed could also take some of that money and begin buying stocks and real estate for its own account. There is nothing to prevent the Fed from doing that either.

It could buy a trillion dollars or more of stocks and real estate. It can park those assets on its balance sheet, for as long as it wants. Investors who sell their stocks and real estate to the Fed effectively receive money that previously did not exist.

Moreover, the Fed could even set the prices at which it will buy stocks and real estate, at levels well above current market values. It could, in essence, buy anything it wants, at any price it wants, park the assets on its balance sheet, and wait for as long as it needs to before putting the assets back up for sale.

Mind you, the economy would still continue to sink in the interim. But the Fed is hoping that by buying time, the economy would eventually rebound enough for things “to get back to normal” — so to speak — and then, as I noted, it would unload its assets and drain money back out of the system.

Fed Weapon #3: The Fed could lower the bank reserve requirement — which is currently 10% for all bank liabilities over $55.2 million — all the way down to zero.

In effect, it could tell banks that for every $10 of customer deposits it holds, not one penny has to be parked at the Fed anymore as collateral.

While that does not guarantee that banks will start to aggressively lend again, it does add further liquidity to the system.

But that’s not all …

Fed Weapon #4: The Fed could penalize banks for not lending to the economy! Yes, that’s right. For instance, right now the Fed pays banks 0.25% on the excess funds they park with the Federal Reserve, funds that are above and beyond what is required to be held at the Fed as reserves.

But as we all know, banks have not been in a lending frame of mind. For a variety of reasons. One of those reasons however, is this current policy of paying banks a risk-free 0.25% on their excess funds that they’re keeping with the Fed.

So instead, the Fed could simply do a 180 — and tell banks that it is no longer going to pay them any interest on their excess reserve funds.

The Fed can even go a step further, and effectively tax or penalize banks for not making loans out to the general economy.

Worse comes to worst, the Fed could default on all government obligations by devaluing the U.S. dollar.

Worse comes to worst, the Fed could default on all government obligations by devaluing the U.S. dollar.

Fed Weapon #5: The Fed can engineer a “default on the sly” on all government obligations, effectively inflating away America’s debts, by DEVALUING THE U.S. DOLLAR, forcibly and clandestinely.

Of course, the consequences of the four preceding strategies will likely devalue the dollar.

But lest the value of the dollar does not fall enough, the Fed can print up ever more dollars, sell them in the open market … buy other currencies … and put much more pressure on China to revalue its currency higher (and the dollar lower).

In short, the Fed can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants. It does have plenty of ammo left.

In fact, in my opinion, the Fed’s battle against the financial crisis (and deflation) has barely begun.

Which is all the more reason to own the only real form of money that has always maintained its purchasing power: Gold!

Larry Edelson

About Uncommon Wisdom

This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com.

Painless ways to save money in tough times.

Posted Tuesday, September 7th, 2010

I am all about saving money and staying out of debt.  Now that the summer is over its not only time to get back to work at work, but its time to get back to work managing your money.  Here are some tips to reduce expenditures and increase earnings.

1. Get rewards and cash back from your purchases — Although I hate debt, I am a big fan of credit cards that pay rewards.

As long as you buy only what you can afford, and pay off your balance in full every month, rewards cards can really stretch your budget.

For maximum effectiveness, I suggest choosing just one single card and using it for all your purchases.  For example I have a Visa card for our personal purchases with Wells Fargo Bank.  I like their plan because I can use the points for products, gift cards, travel or elect to get cash back at the end of the year. We do the same thing with an American Express Card for our business –we can’t get cash back, but the points can be used for any airline or hotel chain, dozens of resorts, products from large chain stores and we get a free companion ticket to anywhere in the world once a year.  Last year we managed a ten-day vacation that only cost us about $400 as all of our airline and hotel charges were covered by points.  And we had enough left over to buy about a dozen gift cards that became Christmas presents.

The card companies have become stingy, especially because of recent legislation changes. But look around — There are still a few no-annual-fee cards that offer good rewards.

The key here is to pay everything off in full each month. As an added bonus, when you pay for everything with a credit card, you also get a monthly inventory of all your spending. This can be a great help if you are budgeting (and you should be), and if you have a business it really simplifies your bookkeeping.

2. Have a late season garage or yard sale –  Most yard sales happen in the summer and for that reason they are very competitive. But September and October can also be great months for sales.  If you didn’t have on this summer, take a look around your house and plan one now.

It all depends on where you live and how much stuff you have, but I rarely earn less than $500 when I do a garage sale. One of the facts of life of getting older is that you just don’t need as much stuff.  So I am pretty brutal about going through the house and getting rid of stuff. And my wife is even tougher than me.  After I did my run through, she cam along behind me with even more stuff than I had found. The result – We generated just over $700 from our last sale and found three fairly expensive items we sold on eBay for another $322.  So that was over $1000 than went right into an extra mortgage payment on our house  (only 33 payments to go –less if we accelerate them).

3. Sell stuff on eBay — Garage sales are one way to make money, but we also sell on eBay. We have our regular eBay business where we sell new products, but we also like to visit garage sales, thrift shops and small country auctions where we find things to sell.  We don’t do this very often, but it adds up.  I looked back through last year’s sales and we earned an additional $7300 just doing that occasionally.

If you want to learn how to sell on eBay, here is a book I wrote that is very basic and will get you started:

4. Use Ebates for up to 25% cash back: Ebates is a free online coupon site that offers up to 25% cash back from top online stores like Target, eBay, Barnes & Noble, and the Gap. Registering on Ebates is free and takes just seconds. You can get more details at the Ebates website.

5. Combine your cable, Internet and telephone service. Cable and Satellite companies now offer combined services that not only cost less, but also offer the convenience of a single bill.  These combined service deals can save you a bundle.

6. Try Skype to reduce your phone costs — I was pretty slow to adopt Skype, but now I am hooked on it and even got my 87 year old mother using it.  Just last week she had a video conference with her great-granddaughter. Mom is in Virginia and can’t travel and our kids are in San Diego, so this was a real treat for both of them. And we have some friends who live overseas and can talk to them for 3Ë a minute.

7. Use Your Senior Discounts – I am always amazed when I go to buy something and see a senior discount. Last week I even learned that my city gives a discount on my trash and recycle hauling because I am a senior. OK – Its only $2.00 a month less but hey –I’ll take it.  Be sure and ask everyone. Even some cell phone companies now give senior discounts.

8. Improve your credit score. A good credit score can save you thousands of dollar in interest on everything from a home loan to a car loan, and from school loans to credit cards. If you’ve never focused on your credit score before, the place to start is to get your free FICO score. Once you know where you stand, you can begin to improve your score and lower your interest payments.

9. Convert to a gas water heater. If you have an electric water heater convert to gas. They are more efficient and will save you money in the long run. And you may want to look into the instant-on tankless water heaters that only heat water when you need it.  The most popular brand is Rinnai –which is heavily advertised, but there are several other cheaper brands.  Here is a link to a Tankless Heater Guide.

10. Look into refinancing – Home interests rates are at 20-year lows; just over 4% for a 30-year loan and as low as 3.5% for a 15-year loan.  The breakeven point is 1.1%.  If the new rate is at least 1.1% lower than your current rate, you will save money by refinancing.

11. Request a reduction in the interest rate on your credit cards — As with home equity loans, credit card companies sometimes are willing to reduce the interest rate. It can’t hurt to ask. If your credit card company won’t help you, switch to a low interest credit card or a one of several 0% APR credit cards.

12. Get rid of Private Mortgage Insurance. If your down payment was less than 20%, you are probably paying PMI. Once you have a 20% cushion through reducing your debt and home appreciation (yes, prices do go up from time to time), contact your mortgage company to start the process of removing the PMI.

13. Read magazines at the library or online — Magazines today cost a fortune. And how many times have you bought a magazine based on the cover and been disappointed by the lack of substance. At the library you can read magazines for free. And many magazines now offer their content for free online. And while you are at the library check out their DVDs.  My local library doesn’t have as many DVDs as NetFlix, but they have a lot including lots of instructional (how-to) DVDs and all the classic movies.

14. Drive your car longer. Cars made in the last ten years are far more reliable than they used to be.  We drove our last car 236,000 miles before selling it. The new versus used debate often overlooks the most important factor–how long you own your car. Drive it as long as you safely can for substantial savings.  And when you buy a car, you can save a ton of money by purchasing a low-mileage one-year-old car, rather than a new one.

15. Pay your life insurance annually. Insurance companies charge you more if you pay monthly, quarterly or semi-annually. Pay once a year and you’ll pay less. My savings from doing this is just over 6% a year –more than I can earn in a savings account.

16. Pay car insurance semi-annually. At least with my car insurance, they offer quarterly and semi-annual payment options. It costs more to pay quarterly, and twice a year is more convenient anyway.

17. Increase insurance deductibles. Most of us don’t need to be insured for all losses over $100 on our car, for example. Although we wouldn’t want to pay a $250 or even $500 deductible, we could. If that’s you, find out how much you’d save from raising your deductible. I’ve raised my deductibles on my auto insurance and home owner’s insurance and saved a considerable amount.

18. Think before submitting an insurance claim. My rule of thumb is that I won’t submit a claim on a loss that is less than twice my deductible. So for a $250 deductible on an auto loss, I’ll pay out of pocket any loss up to $500. Why? The $250 I’d receive from my insurance company is not worth the increased premiums I’m likely to pay. You may want to call your insurance agent to find out how a claim will impact your premiums before filing the claim.

19. Pass on extended warranties — A $139 two-year extension on a $400 product is just not worth it. Warranties are insurance, and we rarely need to insure such a small amount. Computers may be the exception, as they seem to crash and break frequently.  My current computer is on its 3rd hard drive –all paid for by warranty.

20. Create a budget and stick to it — And while you are at it, get organized and avoid missed payments. I’ve missed a payment or two because the bill got buried beneath a stack of papers. Get organized and avoid those late payment penalties. If you do miss a payment, call your creditor and ask to have the penalty removed. They’ll usually accommodate the request if you have a good payment record.

So that is 20 fairly painless tips you can use to save money.  Click on the comments below to leave your tips.

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